Election fever drags down foreign investment inflow

Total foreign capital imported into Nigeria in 2014 summed to USD20.8 billion, lower by USD576.6 million or 2.7 per cent from the USD21.3 billion imported in 2013. The capital import figure represents value of foreign investments in Nigeria’s economy in the period under review.

The year’s decline was primarily due to the reduction in the value of capital imported in the fourth quarter of 2014, which was USD4.5 billion, a sharp decline of USD2.04 million or 31.2 per cent from the value of USD6.5 billion recorded in the preceding quarter (Q3. 2014).

In the just released Capital Importation Report 2014 by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) 2014 had recorded steady upbeat in capital inflow until Q4 and the Bureau said the decline during the quarter was expected, as investor confidence declined during the build up to the presidential election which was scheduled to hold in the first quarter of 2015. However despite this, the closing quarter of the year 2014 was still greater than the USD3.9 billion of capital imported in the first quarter, 2014 by USD595.2 million or 15.2 per cent.

Foreign investments are usually divided into three main investment types: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Portfolio Investment and Other Investments with each comprising various sub-sectors. Despite still making up the largest portion of total capital imported in Q4, 2014 Portfolio Investment, at a value of USD2.003 billion declined by USD3.1billion or 60.9 per cent from its Q3 value of USD5.2 billion. Its subsequent share of total capital imported therefore declined from 78.4 per cent in Q3, 2014, to just 44.5 per cent in Q4.

Year-on-year, this represented a decline of USD1.4 billion or 41.01 per cent, from the Q4, 2013 total of USD3.4 billion, which was 72.54 per cent of total capital imported. The decline in portfolio investment was mainly driven by declines in the value of equity, which at USD1.5 billion in Q4 of 2014, had declined by USD2.2 billion or 59.1 per cent from the preceding quarter and by USD1.2 billion or 43.3 per cent year-on-year.

However, of the three categories of foreign investment types it was only Portfolio Investment that recorded a decline. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) increased from a value of USD544.5 million in Q3, 2014, by USD224.35 million or 41.2 per cent to reach USD768.86 million in Q4. This rise in FDI continued steadily throughout 2014, representing year-on-year growth of USD647.04 million or USD531.14 per cent..